ECG — 2025-09-18
News from ECG
With tariffs and trade wars the outlook that was given at the start of the year has now been amended. This shows a dramatic shift in the overall volumes anticipated for new light vehicle sales and production, but the trends remain similar for most markets - albeit North America has taken the brunt in the new forecast upgrade.
With special thanks to ECG’s data provider S&P Global Mobility we are pleased to bring you this latest Mid-Year review based on the data supplied to ECG in August, and comparing this with the forecast outlook supplied in January this year.
Sales Outlook
Sales for new light vehicles on a global basis have been cut by 1.4 million units in 2026. But despite this downgrade of the forecast, sales are expected to continue to grow. By 2030 sales will have risen 6.35% compared to 2025 volume to hit annual global sales of 95.8 million units.
Production Outlook
Production of new light vehicles on a global basis has been cut by 1.4 million in 2026, but again despite this downgrade in the forecast, production is set to continue to increase. By 2030 production will have risen 6.35% compared to 2025 hitting annual production of 96.89 million units.
Regional Analysis -Sales
Europe - The outlook for sales in Europe has been cut, with sales now expected to decline 2% this year, but following this, sales are expected to increase, albeit at a slower pace than previously forecast. By 2030 sales are expected to have jumped 4.9% compared to 2025 volume to reach 19.1 million units. The peak in sales in Europe is expected in 2029 with forecasts of new light vehicle sales in Europe to hit 19.5 million units.
China - The outlook for sales in China has been downgraded from 2028, when sales are forecast to fall 3% year on year. However, sales are then expected to continue to increase. By 2030 annual sales will have risen 3.69% compared to 2025 volume to reach 28.88 million units per annum.
North America - The outlook for North American has been significantly cut, with declines now forecast in 2025 and 2026. However, following these 2 years of dramatic changes to the outlook, new light vehicle sales will start to rise again albeit from a lower base. North America sales are forecast to peak in 2029 with 19.96 million units, before declining slightly in 2030. By 2030 sales will have increased just 1.99% above 2025 volume to reach 19.53 million units.
Regional Analysis-Production
Europe - As Europe exports a large volume to North America the new forecast shows a decline in European production in 2026 onwards compared to the previous outlook. However, growth is expected to continue, although this is now starting from a lower volume base than in the previous forecast outlook. Following a 2.5% year on year decline in 2025, volume production will rise on average by 1.68% to reach a peak of 17.89 million units in 2029.
China – The latest forecast for light vehicle production in China shows an increase in both 2025 and 2026 volumes compared to the previous data set released in January. However overall the outlook of production in China has been cut from 2027 onwards. Despite the downgrade, the production is expected to grow in China, jumping 4% in 2025 to hit 31.2 million units. By 2030 annual production in China is set to reach 32 million units.
North America-The outlook for production in North America has been drastically cut for 2025 and 2026. However, after this a 6.97% year on year jump in production is expected in 2027 bringing annual production to over 15.3 million units, after which growth is expected to continue.
For more detailed information and analysis, ECG Members can access the latest report here.