ECG — 2023-12-12
News from ECG
New vehicle exports from China are rocketing. Data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) shows that monthly export volumes have been rapidly increasing, with October volumes 9.9% higher than the preceding month. In September monthly export volumes rose 8.8% from August, and in August exports were 4.08% up from the month of July. This strong trend resulted in an October export figure of over 488,000 units.
So, what does this mean? If we extend the current trajectory of monthly rate increases, volume exports from China of new vehicles will hit 500,000 units per month by the end of the year with the full year figure potentially reaching 5 million units. This represents an extraordinary increase from the 301,000 units exported in January 2023, which was already a monthly record.
Interestingly, the vehicles being exported continue to be dominated by traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) models. At the start of the year monthly exports of new energy vehicles (NEV) from China accounted for 27.57% of total new vehicle exports from the country, while in the month of October NEV exports accounted for just 25.41%. This means almost three quarters of new finished vehicle exports from China are still ICE models powered by petrol or diesel.
The top destinations for finished vehicle exports from China are today dominated by two major markets—Russia and Mexico. Let’s put this into context, in 2022 annual vehicle exports from China to Russia were just 162,000 units and Russia was the 5th largest vehicle importer for new vehicles from China. In the first 9 months of 2023 vehicle exports from China to Russia have already hit 639,000 units!
Meanwhile, in 2022 Mexico was the largest volume destination for new vehicles from China at 254,000 units. In the first nine months of this year exports to Mexico are up to 291,000 units meaning Mexico is now in second place to Russia.
But what about the gateway to Europe – Belgium? The country is the hub for vehicle logistics which sees much traffic redistributed across Europe. In 2022 new vehicle exports from China to Belgium reached 207,000 units putting Belgium in fourth spot in terms of top destinations. In the first nine months of 2023, new finished vehicle exports to Belgium are at 168,000 units. But direct exports from China to the UK and Spain are rising, with combined volume imports of 250,000 units already this year. Together, markets in Europe are seeing an increase in direct exports from China, and this means Europe has already received almost 500,000 new vehicles so far in 2023.
For more insights and details ECG members can access the latest Business Intelligence report here.