T&E — 2026-05-18
News from Brussels
The rapid growth of electric cars is no longer just a Chinese or European story. As the Middle East conflict rages on and the high oil prices bite, battery electric cars are fast becoming the cheaper better option.
Even before the Iran war, more and more drivers around the world were choosing reliable electricity over volatile fossil fuels. Globally, every fourth car buyer purchased an electric car (including plug-in hybrids) in 2025. Periods of rapid EV growth had long been observed in Europe and the Middle Kingdom, but these are old news now.
Asian and South American markets are the new BEV growth hotspots
In fact, Asia and South America have the fastest growing BEV markets today. The sales shares in Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam were higher than in Europe last year, ranging from 18% in Indonesia to 34% in Vietnam. And while not yet at the same volumes, the annual BEV market growth in Brazil, India and Mexico was higher than in China in 2025.
The appeal of battery electric cars is only expected to increase, especially in Asia. The region is hardest hit by the energy crunch caused by the closure of Strait of Hormuz and is quickly enacting policies to reduce reliance on imported oil. Even the small nation of Lao has recently slashed fees for electric vehicles by 30%.
Even disregarding the impact of the war, if we plot this growth against the historical market growth in Europe and the US, many emerging markets, including Indonesia, Turkey and Vietnam, are already ahead of their western counterparts.
So, all this should be music to the ears of western carmakers who have been complaining about the lack of demand for their EV models in the US and Europe?
Not quite.
The demand is clearly there. But the winners from the fast growing EV markets in emerging economies so far have been Chinese automakers: BYD, Chery, SAIC and others.
Over 70% of BEVs sold in 2025 in Indonesia, Mexico and Thailand came from Chinese carmakers. This rises to over 90% in Brazil, a market which was until recently dominated by European manufacturers such as Fiat. Even in South Africa, a stronghold for decades for European brands such as VW, Chinese brands are on the ascent, having reached 40% of the BEV market last year.
Affordable BYD Dolphin, Seagull and Seal models consistently rank as the bestselling BEVs from Brazil to Indonesia. India is one notable outlier with local Indian manufacturers such as Tata Motors or joint ventures (e.g. the one between Indian JSW and Chinese SAIC) dominating BEV sales.
What all these top selling models have in common is their attractive price tag which often starts at a lot less than €20,000.
The problem for European carmakers is that they have been late in going electric. That means they are still fine-tuning production lines and ramping up volumes, so they have little to no models that are affordable to drivers in emerging markets.
Two possible futures for EU OEMs in global markets
If the current trends continue, European carmakers will lose market shares in many key car markets.
For example, if the current BEV market dynamics continue in Brazil, Chinese carmakers will be outperforming Europeans 17 to 1, selling an additional 100k battery electric cars in 2030 compared to just 5k growth for European brands. Similarly in Thailand, European brands will be selling 45 times fewer BEVs than their Chinese counterparts if recent trends continue, increasing their sales by just 6,000 units in 2030.
However, our analysis (based on a GlobalData forecast for EU vs Chinese global BEV market shares) shows that if EU carmakers bring the affordable compact BEV models as announced to the emerging markets without delays, their fortunes can turn around. For example, in Brazil they can increase their sales by over 36k units, capturing some of the Chinese OEMs’ current market share.
Such a turnaround is possible given the longstanding consumer awareness of western car brands. But whether they bring those affordable models to market on time is the big question.
The reason why an increasing number of affordable models by the likes of Renault, Fiat and VW are being sold across the EU today is the bloc’s 2025 clean car targets requiring higher EV sales. As the next set of tighter EU rules in 2030 approach, more EV investment and volume production from carmakers will be required. The resulting economies of scale will enable the affordable electric models needed for the emerging markets. (The GlobalData forecast is based on a regulatory scenario where the tighter EU rules come into force in 2030.)
But these 2030 car rules, and the investment in EV production ramp-up, are at risk. Many carmakers, as well as the Italian, German and some Eastern European governments, want to water them down substantially. This means less investment to transform factories and build battery supply chains, resulting in delayed model launches, fewer exports and the loss of market share globally.
The world is going electric, with or without the European auto industry. There is no successful European automotive industrial policy without car exports. But the decisions European politicians will make in the next 12 months will decide whether our carmakers have any models to export to the global economies keen to shake off their reliance on oil imports.