Automotive Logistics — 2026-01-19
Automotive Industry
If the threat is followed through, it could spell further disruption to the global automotive supply chain, especially as European country es are considering hitting back with €93bn ($10.8bn) worth of tariffs on US goods. The EU first prepared the tariff list last year following Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ levies, but the strategy was put on hold until February 6 to avoid a trade war.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen said: “Tariffs would undermine transatlantic relations and risk a dangerous downward spiral.”
The US trade deal on tariffs with the EU that was agreed upon last year, which would see the EU drop tariffs to 0% and the US drop tariffs from 27.5% to 15%, has not been legally approved yet, having previously been put on hold. The European parliament is due to vote on the deal in the next two months, but now government officials in Europe are looking to put it on hold again.
What Trump’s latest tariff threats mean for automotive logistics and supply chain
What this means for the automotive industry is as yet unclear but will certainly have a negative effect. Ahead of the February 1 deadline, shipments are likely to be front-loaded and accelerated, and again for the June tariff deadline, especially for high-value shipments like finished vehicles, engines, battery components, semiconductors and electronics.
If OEMs pull forward volumes, there will likely be short-term booking spikes and a temporary surge in transatlantic shipments, with tightened availability on peak sailings and greater use of premium services for critical components.
Ro-ro shipments are especially sensitive to tariff changes as capacity is less flexible and terminal space is constrained, meaning rate volatility.
Borders and customs are likely to experience bottlenecks and compliance costs for shippers are likely to increase. Even if ports keep moving, the compliance admin fees will continue to rise. This could lead to an increase in demand for foreign trade zones (FTZs) and bonded warehouses while shippers attempt to calculate tariff fees and defer payments.
If the ratification of the EU-US trade deal is further postponed, tariffs could increase even further with potential escalation of a full trade war. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said that whatever the ultimate level of tariffs ends up being, the uncertainty itself will mean investments are postponed and costs increase – a sentiment that has been echoed by automotive logistics and supply chain leaders.
According to the latest figures published by the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA), the US accounted for 22% of the EU export market in 2024. The EU’s automotive exports to the US in 2024 included approximately 750,000 finished vehicles worth around €38.5bn ($43.5bn), while US automotive exports to the EU in the same year included around 165,000 vehicles worth €7.7bn ($8.8bn).
Carmakers that export from Germany, such as BMW, Mercedes-Benz and VW are particularly exposed, as well as exporters from Sweden (Volvo Cars), the UK (JLR) and France (Stellantis brands).
Suppliers including Bosch, ZF, Continental, Valeo and Forvia could also be at risk as they export from Europe to the US.
Ports in the US would also feel the effects of further tariffs, particularly the busy ports of Baltimore, Brunswick, Charleston and Newark. Tariffs often trigger short, intense booking surges followed by pauses by importers, leading to yard congestion and dwell time pressure followed by underutilisation.
Why Greenland matters to automotive logistics and supply chains
Greenland is an autonomous territory of Denmark and is increasingly important in trade, as it is located between Europe and North America and melting ice due to global warming means that shipping routes are opening up around Greenland. UK prime minister Keir Starmer said: “As sea routes open, and strategic competition intensifies, the high north will require greater attention.” He added that the use of tariffs against NATO allies is “completely wrong” and said that “a tariff war is in nobody’s interests”.
While the threats and debate continue, the US Supreme Court is set to decide whether Trump’s tariffs are even legal. The decision could come as early as this week, having previously been expected on January 14.