trans.info — 2026-04-03
Land transportation
Research by the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology shows that by 2040, European road transport could run exclusively on renewable fuels, and as early as 2030 more than half of demand could be covered using waste and biomass.
Renewable resources exist, but they’re not exclusive
KIT researchers stress that renewable fuels can be produced from agricultural waste, wood residues, catch crops, or energy crops grown on low-yield soils. Thanks to this, these fuels do not compete directly with food production.
'Europe has sufficient, long-term sustainable resources to operate without fossil crude oil. Efficient use of waste makes it possible to reduce road transport’s dependence on energy imports while also cutting CO2 emissions' – explains professor Thomas Hirth, Vice President for Transfer and International Cooperation at KIT.
Aviation as the main competitor
However, other analyses show that these same resources will be used intensively in aviation. Studies by Hasselt University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology indicate that sustainable aviation fuels are expected to account for at least 60% of emissions reductions in the aviation sector, and global demand by 2050 could reach as much as 685 million tonnes.
This means that road transport will not have exclusive access to biomass, and renewable fuel production still lags behind targets—by 2024, only 24% of the announced production capacity had been delivered.
Shipping and other sectors are also competing for biomass
Maritime transport accounts for around 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions and is also increasing the share of biofuels in its energy mix. In addition to biogenic fuels, the sector uses hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol—also produced from waste and biomass. The development of e-fuels and synthetic fuels in shipping partially reduces the pressure on biomass for road transport.
What does this mean for road transport?
Road transport can technically use biofuels, but their real-world availability will depend on political decisions and sectoral priorities. Competition for limited feedstocks between road transport, aviation, and industry means that even with sufficient resources, not all fuels will end up in trucks and transport fleets.
Experts point out that deploying biofuels in road transport today requires not only technological development, but also strategic planning and factoring in constraints in feedstock allocation. Otherwise, despite the potential, the impact on emissions reductions and energy independence may remain limited.