Next year’s EU ETS bill will cost shipping more than $3bn

Next year’s EU ETS bill will cost shipping more than $3bn — 2023-07-07

Maritime and Ports

The European Union’s Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (EU MRV) dataset for shipping’s European CO2 emissions for the year 2022 has just been published, with the data highlighting some significant year-on-year changes from 2021 despite the shipping industry as a whole showing a modest reduction in emissions.

The EU MRV regulation requires all ships exceeding 5,000 gt to collect and report data on CO2 emissions released to and from EU and EEA ports and will serve as the basis for shipping’s inclusion in the EU emissions trading system (ETS) from January 1, 2024.

Total ETS-applicable emissions for the maritime industry amounted to 83.4m metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) in 2022, a modest decrease of 0.22% from 2021. At the current market value of €90 ($98) per emissions allowance (EUA), shipping emissions carried a total worth of €7.5bn for the year.

Taking into account the ETS phase-in period covering 40% of emissions in 2024, 70% in 2025 and 100% in 2026, and utilising the forward curve in EUAs, estimates by a new joint venture between Wilhelmsen Ship Management (WSM) and Affinity Shipping indicate that the shipping industry could be liable for €3.1bn in 2024, €5.7bn in 2025 and €8.4bn in 2026.

The data showed emissions decreases across multiple shipping segments, including tankers, containerships, general cargo ships, reefers, roros and chemical tankers. The container sector showed the largest reduction, falling by 8.95% equating to 2.3m metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e) saved.

However, passenger ships and LNG carriers logged substantial increases. The former scored highest, with a 118% year-on-year rise equating to 2.8m (tCO2e), the latter recording a 63% increase equating to 2.1m tCO2e.

The projected liabilities emphasise the importance of shipping companies preparing for their entry into the ETS. We have been onboarding customers from across shipping’s value chain in order to have them fully prepared by the start of next year. We encourage more shipping companies to do the same,” said Hugo Wilson, director of Hecla Emissions Management, a company founded by WSM and Affinity last year to assist shipping clients with each of the compliance obligations associated with EU ETS participation.