ECG — 2026-08-28
News from ECG
European automotive ports are operating in an environment where vehicle flows are changing rapidly. Growing imports, particularly from China, are changing the traditional balance between inbound and outbound volumes, while origins, destinations and trade patterns continue to shift.
Predictability has always been a key issue along the vehicle logistics supply chain. Its impact becomes particularly visible at ports, where maritime, terminal, road and rail flows meet and many different stakeholders depend on each other’s planning. Changes in one part of the chain can quickly affect the others, and limited flexibility at these interfaces can turn ports into bottlenecks for the wider vehicle flow.
This becomes even more relevant as flows change. Volumes fluctuate, new flows emerge and established ones change direction or scale. Longer and changing maritime routes add further variability, while congestion and prolonged dwell times can increase the pressure at these critical nodes. Vessel schedule reliability is one of the factors that can help us understand this changing environment. How stable are published schedules, how often do expected arrival times change, and what can we learn when these developments are tracked consistently over time?
Data from ECG partner ENL Solutions indicates that Europe-inbound Ro-Ro schedule reliability weakened from 48–56% between February and April 2026 to 33–35% between May and July. Across the period analysed, between 47% and 83% of Ro-Ro calls had their published ETA revised by more than one day before departure.
Measuring predictability
ENL Solutions’ Voyage Tracker compares carrier-published schedules with actual vessel movements using AIS data. It tracks how scheduled arrival times change over time and compares these with the actual or estimated arrival of the vessel. The current dataset covers deep-sea and short-sea Ro-Ro traffic into, out of and within Europe.
This provides two different perspectives. Schedule reliability shows how closely planned and actual arrivals correspond, while schedule changes show how stable an ETA remains during the planning period. This distinction is important. A vessel may eventually arrive close to its latest published ETA, although that ETA may have changed considerably since it was first published.
ENL also uses historical data to improve the planning view of future arrivals. Its prediction model applies corrections based on previous performance of the respective trade lane, carrier, port and vessel where sufficient data is available. Closer to arrival, current AIS positioning is also used. Across 944 Europe-related calls analysed between February and July, the published carrier schedules showed an on-time accuracy of 55%, compared with 74% for the ENL-corrected prediction. The average error was 51 hours and 37 hours respectively.
Changes to vessel schedules can result from many different factors across a voyage. Weather, port congestion, queuing, operational requirements and changes in customer demand can all affect vessel rotations and arrival times, leading to schedules being adjusted as a voyage progresses. While six months already provide useful indications, the value of the data will grow with the time series and allow short-term fluctuations to be distinguished more clearly from longer-term developments.
Tracking developments over time
Schedule changes and uncertainty are part of daily operations. Tracking the same indicators consistently over time can help distinguish individual events and short-term fluctuations from recurring patterns and longer-term developments. The objective is not to predict every individual vessel movement, but to make changes in schedule reliability more visible and provide another indicator of the pressures affecting finished vehicle logistics.
ECG will make selected aggregated indicators on vessel schedule reliability available to members and subscribers through the ECG Survey website and update them regularly. As the time series grows, it will help identify recurring patterns and longer-term trends, providing valuable insights into how changes in vessel schedules affect ports, terminals and onward vehicle flows.
To learn more about the data and insights available through the ECG Survey, please contact Szilvi Kiss.