POLITICO — 2023-07-03
Automotive Industry
British trade chief Kemi Badenoch is ramping up pressure on the EU to save electric vehicle manufacturers on both sides of the channel from being hit by new Brexit trade rules in 2024.
But Brussels’ top diplomat in London, Pedro Serrano, is telling people privately it may be difficult to avoid the coming post-Brexit cliff-edge in 2023, a visitor who recently met the ambassador told POLITICO.
It’s already too late for manufacturers such as Nissan, Ford and Stellantis. They are planning how many electric cars and trucks to make in the second half of the year to sell cross-channel.
The new rules, set out in the UK-EU trade agreement, ratchet up on January 1, 2024, and will slap a 10% tax on new electric vehicles if a majority of key parts, such as batteries, aren’t made in either Britain or the EU.
Britain and the EU are holding negotiations over the issue, after carmakers on both sides warned recently that the new rules will seriously dent cross-channel sales and production.
But Brussels has, so far, taken a hard line on the rules — and it's feared a breakthrough won’t emerge until the fall at the earliest.
“We can’t afford to have a last minute 31 December agreement, because business needs to plan its volumes,” said Mike Hawes, chief executive of British automotive lobby group the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) at a summit last week week.
In March, Hawes told POLITICO that product planning happens “six plus months in advance,” meaning prior to July 1, 2023, and the issue needs to be “resolved urgently” and “certainly before you're getting into any sort of summer recess.”
Industry’s plea
The UK auto industry is calling for the current rules of origin under the Brexit deal to be extended to 2027 — specifically for batteries — when the requirements on their components will ratchet up again before 2030.
Under a temporary waiver in the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement, up to 70% of an electric battery’s components can come from outside the UK or EU before tariffs kick in. That threshold will plummet to about 40% in 2024.
Business and Trade Secretary Badenoch had lunch with Serrano, EU ambassador to London, on June 27, 2023, in an effort to find a resolution.
During the lunch, Serrano delivered a message that the rules “are an important instrument to support the EU’s objective to incentivize investment in modern battery technology” across all of Europe, including the UK.
The EU is also “well aware” car manufacturers on both sides of the channel will be impacted by the ratcheting up of the rules, Serrano said. He intends “to fully assess the matter and find the most appropriate solutions.”
The European Commission’s “preferred solution,” said an EU official who was granted anonymity to speak frankly, “would not be to change the TCA."
"If we can find a better, simpler solution," they said, "that's what we will go for.” But the EU has “not taken a position yet,” they underscored, and “have not set a specific timeline or format to address this [issue] yet.”
The recent visitor to Serrano’s office, who was granted anonymity to talk about sensitive discussions, said their takeaway was the EU has no intention of extending the deadline.
Serrano was clear that “the EU wants to keep [the rules] to keep driving investment within the EU,” the person told POLITICO. They said that Serrano’s message was “if the UK suffers as a consequence, that’s [the UK’s] problem, not theirs.”
Serrano's office said they “strongly contest the veracity of this quote” and that the ambassador has never privately told people “not to expect a deal to avoid a coming post-Brexit cliff-edge.”
Autumn breakthrough?
The EU is “saying no at the moment,” said Sam Lowe, a partner and expert in UK and EU trade policy at consultancy Flint Global. “My view is that this will change, but not until later in the year.”
The EU official quoted above pointed to meetings this autumn to discuss trade issues in the Brexit deal as a potential forum “if the UK wishes to raise this” and request tweaks to the deal.
“Any issues regarding the TCA and its operation can be raised by either side in the bodies that were set up by the TCA,” said a European Commission spokesperson. “As we have said before, Brexit has changed the trade relationship between the UK and the EU, among other things.”
The Brexit trade deal “allows modification of [rules of origin],” said Peter Holmes, a fellow of the UK Trade Policy Observatory at the University of Sussex. Yet to make a change, the UK “would have to offer something” to the EU.
A change “could be done relatively quickly,” an automotive industry figure, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly, told POLITICO, noting it would “only take a resolution” to the Brexit deal’s joint U.K.-EU council. But there is still technical work to be done by Brussels “before a solution is agreed on,” they said.
The number of UK car buyers who plan to purchase an electric vehicle has jumped to 54% in 2023, rising from 49% in 2022, according to a recent analysis by the consultancy EY.
Both the coming cliff-edge and a lack of charging infrastructure in the UK could potentially dampen demand, automotive industry insiders say, and put the brakes on surging production and exports which are up by double digits over 2022.
The fact EU producers are "saying they want an extension as their own battery production capacity is not going to be in full swing" means the EU “are going to be more open to considering changes,” said Karl Falkenberg, former senior European Commission trade official and a senior adviser at consultancy Shearwater Global.
Still, countries around the world led by the U.S. are tightening the rules of origin to prevent a third party like China “from inadvertently becoming the main beneficiary,” he added. Battery production needs to ramp up, but China continues to be the world’s largest supplier of raw materials like lithium — a key component of batteries.
Badenoch met with her EU counterpart Valdis Dombrovskis last week to press on the issue, said a spokesperson for the Department for Business and Trade, noting that she is ramping up engagement with her counterpart to find a resolution.
But for now, automakers on both sides of the channel will be taking decisions without the clarity they need, said the industry figure quoted above. “It does feel a little bit more challenging to get as much focus on this in Brussels as in London.”