Automotive News Europe — 2024-01-11
Automotive Industry
Tesla is expected to help German car production grow by 2.5% per year, outpacing annual gross domestic product (GDP) of 1.4%, as the German car industry slowly returns to growth amid cautious optimism, according to consultant and market research firm Berylls.
Based on Berylls’s growth predictions, German car production volume will rise to 5.2 m vehicles in 2030, up from 4.3 m cars in 2023.
In a best-case scenario, 6 m vehicles will be produced in Germany in 2030, marking an increase of 13% compared with the assumed average.
This would be driven “almost exclusively” by growth at Tesla’s plant in Gruenheide, near Berlin, Berylls said.
“On average, German manufacturers are not planning any growth in local production and are also heavily dependent on developments in the premium segment,” the firm said.
“Following many low points in the recent past, the German automotive industry has returned to a path of growth,” said Stefan Schneeberger, Berylls’s production expert.
By 2030, national vehicle production growth of 24% would “significantly” outstrip growth in China, which should see a 17% increase.
However, the Berylls production figure represents a mean average in a range, which could be positively or negatively impacted.
EV shift, protectionist risks
Meanwhile, risk factors include the industry shift towards e-mobility, industrial policy upheavals, and increasing market protectionism in certain global markets.
A potential relocation of production abroad poses a notable risk.
For example, Chinese manufacturer BYD plans to set up a plant in Hungary for its European supply of cars.
“However, to ensure that Germany remains an important location in the future, it would be desirable to invest in local production sites or for new manufacturers to locate their European production in Germany, similar to Tesla,” said Berylls.
In a worse-case scenario, these risk factors would cause production to shrink by as much as 32%, equaling a decline of 1.7 m vehicles by 2030, according to the Berylls analysis.
In turn, this would reduce German GDP by 1.6%.