Automotive News Europe — 2024-07-09
Automotive Industry
Mercedes-Benz's forecast that 50% of sales would be either full-electric or plug-in hybrid by 2025 is looking increasingly unlikely.
Mercedes-Benz will wait to see if electric vehicle demand picks up before adding more battery cell capacity, with lower projected EV sales meaning it will no longer need the capacity initially planned for 2030, said Markus Schafer, the group's chief technology officer.
The automaker said in 2022 that it would need more than 200 gigawatt-hours of battery cell capacity by the end of the decade and planned to build eight cell factories worldwide with partners, including four in Europe.
But with EV demand lower than many automakers had forecast, Mercedes said earlier in 2024 it did not expect sales of electrified vehicles, including plug-in hybrids, to reach up to 50% of the total until 2030 -- five years later than its previous forecast of 2025.
The 200-gWh prediction was based on the assumption that Mercedes's entire annual sales of about two million vehicles would be electric by 2030, Schaefer said on 8 July 2024.
"Is the 200-gWh hour capacity still necessary? It's a question of the timeline," he said.
The automaker signed a deal with CATL in 2022 to receive battery cells from the Chinese company's 100-gWh plant being built in Hungary, though it did not disclose the size of the deal.
It will also receive cells from a 40-gWh plant in France via the Stellantis joint venture ACC, in which it holds a 30% stake.
Plans to build two further ACC plants in Germany and Italy were paused in June 2024 because of low EV demand. Mercedes also has suppliers in the US and China.
"We are relatively flexible. We will think about next steps when we have more transparency on demand," Schaefer said. Listing the automaker's current supplier relationships, he added: "This is enough to cover the next stage."
Mercedes has not reined in investments to electrify its product lineup and Schaefer said it was not putting significant sums into combustion-engine cars beyond planned updates to bring its vehicles in line with emissions regulations.
Still, CEO Ola Kallenius said in February 2024 the company would ensure its combustion-engine lineup was competitive well into the next decade to meet demand.
Battery technology
Schaefer was speaking to journalists at the inauguration of a research and production center for battery cells at Mercedes's headquarters.
The site will produce tens of thousands of battery cells a year in a 10,000-square-meter factory, as the company strives to take greater control of the chemical composition and industrial manufacturing of its batteries.
Mercedes is working on lithium ion cells with high-energy anodes and cobalt-free cathodes, as well as solid-state technology, which holds the promise of more energy storage, longer driving ranges and faster charging.
Increasing the energy density of EV batteries is crucial, particularly for premium automakers looking to reduce vehicle weight and costs while increasing range.
Cell designs developed at the new center will be shared with partner companies and incorporated into future battery cells from suppliers, Schaefer said.